Quantum query: 2017 vs. 2016 commercial real estate market

David Perlmutter, QuantumListing/Perlmutter Properties

Here at QuantumListing.com we love conducting polls on Twitter. The timing of ICSC’s New York National Deal Making at the Javits Convention Center in Manhattan coincided with our most recent Twitter poll, giving us the opportunity to try a hybrid online/live poll. So, while the online @QuantumListing Twitter poll was running, we had two days where we were getting responses at our booth in the “voting machine” we created for the occasion. Even surveys can go bricks and clicks!

The question we asked was “How do you think the 2017 commercial real estate market will compare to 2016?” Respondents were given the choices of Better than 2016, Worse than 2016, The same as 2016 or Undecided.

There were 99 total responses, 47 on Twitter and 52 at the ICSC. In both polls, the majority of the responses were that 2017 will be a better market than 2016, with 55.3% of the vote on Twitter and 73.1% at the ICSC. A few things might account for the disparity, the first being the relatively small number of responses could lead to disproportionate statistical variance. Another possibility is the peer pressure that the ICSC respondents felt to feel optimistic, as often their votes were cast while others were watching. A third possibility is that the retail sector is more optimistic about 2017 than the commercial real estate market as a whole.

The Twitter vs ICSC vote for the market being the same in 2017 as 2016 was 19.1% compared to 14.1%; Worse was 14.9% vs 12.1% and undecided was 10.6% vs 9.1%. When you combine both the Twitter and ICSC votes, 78.7% of the combined communities feel that 2017 will be at least as good or better than 2016, which is a pretty bullish indicator for the year ahead. Let’s hope we’re right!

David Perlmutter is the founder and CEO of QuantumListing/Perlmutter Properties, White Plains, N.Y.