The A&P bankruptcy’s effect on the Long Island shopping center landscape - by Schuckman

Long Island is one of the trade areas that will face a dramatic change in the shopping center landscape as a result of the A&P Bankruptcy. An unprecedented change in the supermarket industry is occurring in real-time. With 51 supermarkets closing, being sold or repurposed, the A&P bankruptcy is effecting Long Island throughout both Nassau & Suffolk Counties.  Our firm has been in the forefront of the development of the grocery anchored shopping center business for over three decades. As a result, we have a deep understanding and knowledge of the shopping patterns of markets consumers. There will be well over 2 million s/f in transition over the coming months and the impact in each submarket could be dramatic depending upon how the chips fall. As of the date of this article, there are approximately 15 stores that do not have bids in the bankruptcy process. We are working on a number of these stores with supermarket chains and with others, we are working to repurpose the stores to non-supermarket uses. Our research from submarket to submarket has shown that there are cases where shopping centers will experience a dramatic change based upon the quality of the new anchor. In some cases, the transition from the A&P brand to a quality operator like Shoprite will bring significantly more traffic to the shopping center and will influence the quality of tenants and rents the landlord can achieve. In other cases, where the shopping center depends on the grocery anchor, the fortunes may be very different if there is not a replacement. There are two properties we are currently discussing with ownership about changing the use altogether for a redevelopment to non-retail type uses. When the dust settles, we predict that there could be up to ten stores on Long Island that will not have a supermarket replacement. Landlords who anticipate this possibility have been contacting our firm for advice as to what the options are as well as what the market rent will be.  Ultimately, comps will be affected by these changes in a negative way.  Often, a shopping center owner will contact us with regard to the worth of their center. In a stable market with few vacancies, you can comfortably give that analysis. When there are so many variables, like we are seeing now, whether it be a health club or big box tenant take over a former supermarket space, there will be an adjustment to the market rent, possibly bringing it down. In order to keep rents at a higher, stable level, landlord’s may be required to pay tenant improvement allowances which becomes typical in a market where the landlord wants the right tenant which will keep comps stable. However the chips may fall, Long Island throughout its history has proven to be one of the most resilient markets in America. For a long time A&P neglected the needs of the consumers on Long Island and the transition of most of the stores to operators such as Best Market, Stop & Shop, Shoprite, and Key Food will be a welcomed change.  With the upgrade in the quality of the operators, Long Island’s shopping center landscape will, in the long term, be better than it is today. In short term, we will witness winds of change that will effect both the consumer and the property owner. Kenneth Schuckman is president at Schuckman Realty, Inc., Woodbury, N.Y.