Marcus & Millichap publishes 2026 NYC Retail Investment Forecast Report

Manhattan, NY Marcus & Millichap has published its 2026 New York City Retail Investment Forecast Report.

“What continues to set New York City apart is the strength of its core retail corridors,” said John Horowitz, senior managing director and chief revenue officer, northeast division. “Retailers still want to be in places like SoHo and Williamsburg because that’s where the foot traffic is. When space opens up in those corridors, it usually doesn’t stay available for long.” 

Key findings include: 
• Job growth is expected to moderate. Payrolls in New York City are projected to expand by approximately 19,000 positions in 2026, marking the metro’s smallest annual gain since 2010 outside of the pandemic period.

• Retail construction will remain extremely limited. Development is forecast to expand inventory by only 0.1 percent in 2026, the second-lowest annual total since at least 2007.

• Vacancy is projected to increase slightly. Elevated availability among big-box and department store formats could push the metro’s retail vacancy rate to around 4.4% by year-end.

• Retail rents remain the highest in the nation. Average asking rent is expected to reach approximately $60.63 per s/f, the highest level among major U.S. markets.

• Demand remains strongest in dense, high-traffic districts. Smaller-format urban retail in supply-constrained areas such as SoHo and Union Square is expected to outperform, supported by tourism and steady population inflows. 

“Even with shifts in tenant demand across the boroughs, New York’s limited development pipeline and global retail profile continue to support strong rents and long-term investor confidence,” Horowitz said.