JLL data reveals New York leads in high-value talent migration

New York, NY New research from global real estate brokerage JLL shows that, despite headline-grabbing population statistics, New York is winning the nation’s migration competition for high-value talent. 

While broad migration data suggests the city is losing residents overall, the workers that matter most to financial, tech, and innovation-driven firms are choosing New York in overwhelming numbers. JLL’s granular look at real job-to-job moves reveals that Manhattan continues to outpace Florida and other Sun Belt markets in attracting early- and mid-career professionals from top schools and key office-using industries — the segment that powers corporate growth and defines long-term economic strength.

“The numbers turn the Wall St. South narrative on its head,” said Kevin Kelly, vice chairman at JLL. “Corporate location decisions increasingly hinge on access to specialized labor, and while Florida may be winning broad population measures, New York continues to dominate the high-value talent segment that sustains its financial and tech ecosystem.” 

Conventional migration data counts everyone, from retirees to recent graduates to service workers, and is typically aggregated at the state or metro level, obscuring the specific labor dynamics of Manhattan. To understand where elite firms are truly gaining or losing ground, JLL analyzed LinkedIn migration data for moves into and out of New York City. The sample was segmented by education, industry, career stage and university pedigree.

“Once you stop looking at everyone and start looking at the people companies are most competing for, the story changes fast,” Kelly said. “Our job is to help clients cut through the broad statistics and political narrative that can obscure the real trends and it’s that level of clarity that allows our clients to make the smartest business decisions about where to invest and grow.” 

Across the five largest exchange states — California, Florida, Massachusetts, Texas, and Illinois — the broad population numbers appear familiar. Florida attracts 53 percent of all movers between New York and Florida, giving it a modest edge. But once the data is filtered to profiles most coveted by office-using industries, New York reverses the trend.

Among early- and mid-career professionals from top schools and key industries, New York attracts 60% of movers, outperforming Florida by ten points. And even at broad measures where New York loses roughly 800 total residents to Florida, it gains 4,600 from California alone. When the top five states are aggregated, New York’s net inflow outweighs its losses 14 to 1, and within high-skill cohorts the ratio rises to more than 70 to 1.

The analysis also illustrates the scale of movement. Roughly 32,000 people moved between California and New York over the past year, more than double the New York–Florida exchange. Even modest losses to Florida are overwhelmed by inflows from California, Massachusetts, Illinois, and Texas, particularly among the most skilled demographics.

JLL notes that the competitive landscape is shifting as wages in Sun Belt markets rise and the labor cost gap narrows. What was once a 30% salary advantage in places like Dallas has tightened to single digits or less for many finance and tech roles. As cost convergence accelerates, talent access becomes the primary driver in corporate location strategy.

JLL’s Migration White Paper acknowledges that population loss remains a legitimate concern and that New York’s advantage is not guaranteed. “Deterioration in public safety or quality of life could slow high-skill migration, while rising real estate costs and constrained office availability may still push some corporate relocations, independent of talent patterns,” said Kelly. “For mid- and late-career professionals, New York can even flip to a disadvantage relative to lower-cost states like Florida, particularly when commute times and cost of living are factored in. There are real reasons companies continue to evaluate other U.S. markets. That said, the data is unambiguous: New York is not bleeding its most valuable contributors. Today, it continues to attract and concentrate the specialized workforce that leading firms need to compete and grow.”