Posted: October 7, 2011
By Ryan Horvath: Go west, young man/woman, go west and see for yourself the transformation destined for Manhattan
Replace "from sea to shining sea" with the less glorious "from river to picturesque river" and much like 19th Century Manifest Destiny sentiment, New York's promised future lies west. Take a stroll from 14th St. to 20th St. on the original High Line (Section 1) and soak in the cultural experience that is New York's Meatpacking District. Then journey into the unknown from 20th St. to 30th St. on the new High Line extension (Section 2) to revel in what was and what will be.
In a city that defines "buzz," High Line Section 2 provides plenty of it. After "buzz" follows money-lots and lots of money. According to The New York Times, an estimated $2 billion in private investment has surrounded the park since its inception. Of course, as the money comes in the rent goes up. Asking price per s/f for retail space between 17th and 20th St. (on 10th Ave.) is regularly higher than in Section 2. There is no denying that proximity to the Meatpacking District drives up asking rents for Section 1 as much if not more than proximity to the High Line. So we then must ask: how will the High Line affect asking rents for Section 2? Is it close enough to become the "top sirloin" of the Meatpacking District? Comparable market data suggests a discount, but the "buzz" has just begun. How long then will it take New York to realize its 21st Century Manifest Destiny? My recommendation: Have a beer and a Korean taco at The Lot, a temporary public plaza below the Highline at West 30th and 10th Ave, and see for yourself that westward expansion is destined to reshape Manhattan sooner than later.
I imagine the excitement James Marshall felt when discovering gold at Sutter's Mill, in Coloma, California, some 150+ years ago, to be similar to the emotion I felt walking down 26th St. for the first time several months ago. I doubt many will own up to sharing this experience, or even understand why a boring side street would bring about such a reaction. One step off 10th Ave. however, and I knew I had stumbled upon more than a nugget, but an entire mine. As a rookie in the retail leasing business I learned early on that in Manhattan, you must follow the artists. It is the artists who make neighborhoods "cool" even before it is "cool" to say "cool." Roughly eight years ago, local artists began moving north from SoHo in search of less green pastures. They settled en masse right in the heart of what is now Section 2. Developers and the city of New York took notice.
It took six grueling years for laborers of the Central Pacific Railroad and the Union Pacific Railroad to complete the United States' first transcontinental railroad in 1869. Mountains were conquered, rivers were gapped; the 19th Century equivalent of the Internet was born. In October 2007, the MTA announced its plans to extend the 7 line west to 11th Ave. at 34th St., opening up Midtown Manhattan to its final frontier. Operational completion was to be expected six years after breaking ground and is on pace to open in 2013. New Yorkers walk out of necessity, not desire. Two avenues seem miles and miles further than four blocks (the A, C, E is currently the closest subway station to the north entrance of Section 2 located on 8th Ave. at 34th St.), especially around the frigid winters or the sweltering summers.
Like the trailblazers of the pre-transcontinental Oregon Trail, a select group of New Yorkers have already taken the ultimate leap of faith in Section 2 and called it home. Successful area developments, such as Atlantic Development Group's "Port 10" located on 10th Ave. between 27th and 28th St., report near 100% occupancy, Modern, spacious, amenity rich developments have become the norm surrounding Section 2 as the frontiersmen and frontierswomen of today also demand more land. Retailers, on the other hand, are soon to follow. Although on 10th and 11th Aves. from 27th to 42nd Sts. modern residential developments, much like Port 10, still feature vacant retail space. Duane Reade can't occupy all of them. Possibly an entire neighborhood of Starbucks would work? All jokes aside, high vacancy on the retail side will be a thing of the past as the "buzz" surrounding Section 2 provides all of the necessary firing power for New York's modern day Manifest Destiny to take root.
Ryan Horvath is a director of retail leasing at Massey Knakal Retail Leasing Services, New York, N.Y.
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