News: Brokerage

Recession hits bottom - Time to return to work

What happened December 7th 1941? If you recall that day, you're at least as old as I am or did your history class homework. Can you imagine how people felt that Sunday afternoon when a radio announcer broke into the popular show, The Shadow, and announced that Pearl Harbor had been attacked by the Japanese? The next day the 12-year recession (Great Depression) was over. Hell of a way to end a recession, but that's what happened. Why did the Japanese attack? Many reasons, but mainly oil. (I guess things change, but remain the same.) They were already fighting the Chinese and had invaded Indochina. When that happened, the USA, mainly ruled by isolationists, diplomatically stopped Japan from receiving oil from several sources, thus making them angry. Their goal was to control the Pacific and so decided that by destroying our Navy, the job would be easy. Instead, the action created many jobs in the USA as most patriotic males couldn't sign up fast enough to became soldiers. Many females went to work to replace the males and manufacture war materials. The president spoke to the nation the next day on radio and said, "We have nothing to fear other than fear itself." (Whatever that means). What does all this have to do with the current situation in the U.S. and around the world? Maybe a lot. If that war was brought on by the need and greed for oil, what was learned from it? Apparently not much. Oil still causes much headache and wars around the world. Meanwhile, since you and I really can't do much about that situation, what we can do is stop being afraid. The batter who's afraid to go to bat against a fast ball pitcher will most likely strike out. The batter who isn't afraid, has a good chance of getting a hit. Same as in business. The recession is two years old and has definitely bottomed out finally. That means that things will begin to improve, but not if we are afraid. What goes up must come down, and the reverse is true. We've been down long enough, afraid long enough, time to come back up and get back up to the plate. Bryce Blair, CEO of successful public real estate development company Avalon Properties, said, "The recession is over." (By the way, I'm proud to say he's my son-in-law). National Association of Realtors commercial economist George Rheiu (no relation) said, "At long last it is here, the bottom of what has been the worst real estate and capital market cycle in recent memory." (Where was this guy in 1989,1990, 1991? Well, we survived that one but it took three years). He states that figures to prove we have bottomed out, and among them are investor purchases, $148 billion in 2008, $54 billion in 2009, close to $100 billion in 2010. Investors don't buy when they are afraid. Those of you who have been watching and waiting can now get back up to the plate, recall all the things you did that made you successful in the first place and begin doing them over again. P.S. - I only mentioned Dec. 7th because I wrote this important message on Dec. 7th, and it was a major turning point in world history. Roland Hopkins is the founder of the New York Real Estate Journal, Norwell, Mass.
MORE FROM Brokerage

NYSCAR June 2026 president’s message - by Mercedes Brien

As I write this letter, we are preparing to be at the Annual Conference being held at the Rivers Casino, Schenectady, New York. I look forward to reporting on the conference in my next letter. We have some great courses coming up via Zoom. Please be sure to keep watch on upcoming courses by visiting nyscar.org/resources and tools/professional development.
READ ON THE GO
DIGITAL EDITIONS
Subscribe
Columns and Thought Leadership
The anticipated effect of Basel III and ISO 20022 implementation on commercial real estate - by Michael Zysman

The anticipated effect of Basel III and ISO 20022 implementation on commercial real estate - by Michael Zysman

July 1, 2025 is the deadline for US banks to begin to adopt Basel III banking standards and July 14, 2025 is the deadline for U.S. banks to adopt ISO 20022 messaging standards. Both will have a significant effect on the banking and commercial real estate (CRE) finance sectors.
Tri-state capital  migrates nationally amid  regulation pressure - by Reese Weaver

Tri-state capital migrates nationally amid regulation pressure - by Reese Weaver

New York tri-state multifamily investors are increasingly reallocating capital to less-regulated markets across the U.S. as rent control and legislative risk erode returns at home. With over 60% of New York City’s rental housing stock classified as rent-stabilized, the traditional value-add model — buying under-performing buildings,

A fresh start - by Shallini Mehra and Amit Doshi

A fresh start - by Shallini Mehra and Amit Doshi

For the past several years, the New York City multifamily housing market has been defined by disruption. The combined impact of the HSTPA rent laws and a sharply higher interest rate environment has fundamentally reduced
The death of the generic offering memorandum: What buyers expect in 2025 - by Kimberly Zar Bloorian

The death of the generic offering memorandum: What buyers expect in 2025 - by Kimberly Zar Bloorian

There was a time when an offering memorandum (OM) was pretty bare bones, some photos, a few bullet points on income, and a rent roll thrown in at the back. That used to get the job done. Not anymore. In 2025, buyers are sharper, faster, and more selective. They’re looking