The wonderful sight of shoppers swarming into the stores for the holidays capped a year of retail rebirth for the city-2010 will rightfully be cited as the post-recession turnaround. Customers came out for the new and wonderful, some of the largest deals in the city's history were signed, and new designers and merchants brought their goods to New Yorkers.
What's more, all signs point to an even better 2011.
A quick recap of the year just past: the holiday sales season exceeded everyone's expectations (except mine!). The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs predict a 4% increase over holiday 2009, while Mastercard's numbers report a 5.5% year-over-year gain, with apparel and jewelry making a terrific comeback.
Electronics sales were fed by smartphones, table computers and e-readers, and accessories, particularly on the luxury front, ruled the day. "Self Gifting," a trend we haven't seen in recent years, buying for yourself while gift shopping, also has returned. While unemployment is still a concern, those with jobs are feeling a bit more comfortable giving themselves a treat.
Luxury consumers are back with a vengeance, even the aspirational shoppers we'd assumed were gone forever, according to the Luxury Institute. And value shoppers also bought their Kinects, toys and sweaters!
We also saw some spectacular deals and store openings, from the discounter Target's debut in East Harlem to the new offerings from Ralph Lauren-yet another mansion makeover-and Dior on 57th St. The largest retail lease in New York's history, Uniqlo at 666 Fifth Ave., was signed, while luxury boutiques including DeLaneau also found homes on the jeweled mile.
Globalization was in force, with offerings from South America (Nancy Gonzalez), India (Soigne K), Australia (Ugg), Africa (Rain Africa) and Europe (ToyWatch, Musette, MonnaLisa) opening. West coast retailers also came east, including Icebreaker from Portland and Dash from Los Angeles.
So what's next for 2011? More of everything! We'll see more globalization, as brands everywhere continue to believe (rightly) that you're not an international force without a store in the capital of the world. That will include retailers from countries in Asia and Australia and who may not have had a global presence in the past.
Stores will continue to figure out how to work with the Internet, as smartphone shopping was a major force in the just-completed holiday season. The eventual announcement of Nordstrom's first full-line store will see a new retail corridor, from Macy's to Columbus Circle, open up. Wal-Mart may or may not sign a deal in Manhattan this year, but its specter will loom large for dealmakers and shoppers alike. Meatpacking/Highline will continue to reemerge as retail forces now that the better-known retail districts have recovered from the downturn.
Rents will continue to rise. There are still opportunities, but we're past the bottom. Careful negotiating will be needed.
On the home front, "Negotiating for Business and Life" will be the class I'm teaching at The Learning Annex on February 2, from 6:45-9:30 p.m. More information is available at www.learningannex.com/live_classes/326. I'm also honored to be included with office, industrial and other real estate experts at a Real Estate Board of New York seminar on "Street Smarts: Factors that Impact Residential Real Estate," part of its Inside Secrets of Top Brokers Series. The panel will be held February 10 from 5:30-7 p.m. at the REBNY Mendik Education Center, 570 Lexington Ave. More details can be found at www.rebny.com.
I'm also delighted to note that I have been named communications director and once again joined the board of NYCREW, the New York chapter of the Commercial Real Estate Women's network. This is NYCREW's 10th anniversary year, and we in the leadership have recommitted ourselves to creating the best programs and opportunities for our members to rise to the very top of our profession. It will be an exciting time!
Along the same lines, I again will chair the ICSC Special Interest Group for Women initiative, a program I launched last year to great success. Our next roundtable session is scheduled for February 22 from 2-3 p.m. at the Mid-Atlantic Conference and Deal Making in National Harbor, Md., and I'm busily recruiting roundtable leaders. To register for the entire conference, visit www.icsc.org/2011MA. For the SIG only, email
[email protected].
All signs indicate that 2011 will continue our retail rebirth, so happy shopping!
Faith Hope Consolo is the chairman of the Retail Leasing, Marketing and Sales Division at Prudential Douglas Elliman, New York, N.Y.