Regardless of the nay-sayers, business is out there if you know how and where to look

The next 12 months should prove interesting. If history has taught us anything at all, it is that fortunes are made in tumultuous times.  As Darwin put it, "In the struggle for survival, the fittest win out at the expense of their rivals because they succeed in adapting themselves best to their environment."  This so-called "struggle for existence" was the catch phrase of most retailers in 2008.  If the last quarter has proven anything at all to us, it has become more apparent every day that, regardless of the nay-sayers, the business is out there if you know how and where to look. As industry leaders we need to be responsible and stop dwelling on the past and put aside what we already know: 2008 was the worst year nationally in more than two decades.  Home values plummeted at unprecedented rates, as foreclosure and unemployment levels hit record highs.  Pundits actually started using the word "depression" in the final quarter of '08, a familiar phrase that we spent the entire year consciously steering clear of.  Unfortunately simply ignoring the word did little to allay people's fear that this recession could very easily turn the corner and morph into a depression.  Could this become the 1930s all over again?  We were all thinking it, but cautious to not utter that nightmare out loud.  Let's once and for all dispel this notion.  There were three fundamental mistakes made by the Federal Government in reaction to the 1929 stock market crash that lead to the depression:  taxes were raised, federal spending was cut, and the supply of money was tightened.  These decisions, along with other reactionary, miscalculated responses by the Federal Government allowed an already shaky economic situation to become a full blown depression.  Let's flash forward to the last two quarters of 2008.  This period will most likely go down as the most turbulent economic time in history.  The difference now is that nobody is talking about raising taxes, we may in fact see middle class tax cuts to encourage consumer spending; and although we continue to attempt to cut governmental waste and shrink the size of government, the Fed is not planning to cut government spending.  As final proof that we have learned hard lessons from the past, the Fed is not cutting the supply of money - it is handing out trillions of interest free dollars, to virtually anybody who is thoughtful enough to taxi their private jets out of Congress' line of vision.  Now that we got that out of the way, here comes 2009.  I don't think we have yet to see all of America's leading industries parade before congress making desperate pleas for bailout money, and I really don't think we can effectively move on until that door is shut.   Insurance companies were first, followed by the banks, and finally the auto industry.  Who is next?  The airlines can't be far behind, or perhaps the gaming industry?  I would really like to see Steve Wynn pull up to congress in a Toyota Prius and ask for bailout money because the unemployed gambler junkets never really took off.  Perhaps the real estate industry will be next.  Globally our industry has been hit as hard as any other.  Areas like Florida, California, Vegas and Arizona may never really fully recover and regain the momentum they garnered over the last decade, but as most industries, the real estate industry flows in cycles, and the next up-cycle can't be too far off. Fortunately, here on Long Island, and I suspect in most areas of the Northeast, we haven't seen the same devastation as other parts of the country.  We seem, as always, to be weathering the storm.  Sure we continue to experience double digit declines in home prices, but these homes are still selling, unlike the sobering comparisons in other areas where home sales have all but dried up completely. Seasoned real estate professionals will continue to analyze a plethora of opportunities in this down-turned market.  We have cautiously waited, but are now nearing the time to pounce on the opportunities.  Darwin would simply comment that the weak have fallen in order to make room for the strong.  So as we kick off 2009 we can only do what leaders in our industry do best, be optimistic, continue to believe that our economy is resilient and will soon rebound.  After all, it always does.  However, while the economy finalizes it's tailspin to the bottom of this cycle, now is the best time for deal making.  When that process begins we can confirm the bottom of the last cycle, a true necessity before we are able to begin the climb back up. Robert Delavale is the director of leasing for Breslin Realty Development Corp., Garden City, N.Y.