The promise of change: How will it impact the transactional real estate business in 2009?

I am writing this article on the eve of the upcoming historic presidential election. The key question for my industry can only be answered over time. It revolves around which version of the two candidates' highly touted vision of change is more likely to have a positive impact on real estate transactions in the commercial and residential worlds? Being involved in the title insurance business for nearly 25 years, I can tell you that all the industry looks for is an active transactional business. Whether it is commercial or residential acquisitions or refinances, as a business community all we need is activity in the transactional real estate world. So this begs the question: "Which of the presidential candidates will bring forth the economic change required to once again spur activity in the real estate business?" It is a huge question that demands action rather than election-spurred rhetoric. I am willing to argue that regardless of which candidate is victorious on November 4, economic stability and certainty in our marketplace will be restored, and the commercial and residential real estate transactions will increase in the near future. We live in a hypersensitive and reactionary time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average swings drastically on a news story. Banks appear to be going under quicker than the media can report them, and all businesses from the automotive industry to local travel agents are suffering in a floundering economy. On November 5, we will awaken to a country having named a new leader and a new direction. Whether we will live with presidential hopeful Obama's ninety-day foreclosure freeze or Senator McCain's no new spending doctrine, our domestic and global marketplaces will have a better conception of what direction our country will take. I fully believe that certainty in our leadership will once again drive our economy to recovery. Nevertheless, I don't believe that either candidate's plan unto itself will spur economic revival or necessarily be better for the transactional real estate business. I also don't believe that the effects of the election on our economy will be immediate. Short sales are on the rise and we will likely see a continuation of this trend in both the residential and commercial marketplaces in 2009. We may also see an increased demand for refinances as interest rates seem to tick lower in the short run. However, I do firmly believe that a change in leadership will bring more stability to our economic environment in 2009. Of late, the current economic crisis has been compared to Black Thursday and the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression. There are also many who believe that economic recovery will largely depend on the new President's ability to instill confidence in business and in government. Franklin Delano Roosevelt provided that leadership in the early thirties. Along with the other members of the title industry and my fellow citizens, I hope that by the time this article is being read, our new direction on the path to recovery has already begun. Edward Dull is a vice president and senior counsel to National Land Tenure Company, LLC, Garden City, N.Y.