So long, Great Recession! The economy is picking up

The recovery appears to be picking up steam, according to retail sales figures from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and analysis from the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. The April ICSC Chain Store Sales Trends report saw a 9% comparable-store sales increase in March, the largest such increase since March 1999. While an earlier Easter certainly helped boost that figure, it's a clear indication that shoppers are emerging from their long, long hibernation. The April Beige Book supports this trend too, noting that retail sales were pretty much up across the board nationally, with New York and Cleveland strong, and Richmond and Kansas City rebounding. Philadelphia saw slight gains. Equally interesting was what was selling-home furnishings and electronics sales rose in a number of areas (which bodes well regarding home sales). People are investing in big-ticket items for the home, one retailer says, as well as seasonal apparel. As for New York specifically, the economy has strengthened "noticeably" according to the Beige Book, though hiring is sluggish. Sales continue to strengthen, with general merchandise sales on or ahead of plan in March. Value retailers remain appealing-the shopper is still quite cautious about spending, and wants the most for her dollar at every price point. But she's clearly back in the stores, which shows a higher confidence in the future-and her bottom line. Retailers have strengthened their own bottom lines-discounting at higher-end stores is down because of tight inventory controls. That will mean a more profitable tenant, capable of paying rents, which are starting to strengthen for the best locations. Troubled properties will remain so, as the tenants who are expanding this year choose top-tier sites whose rents became more affordable. But more retailers are starting to announce store openings for later this year and next. Given that there has been little new development either in major cities or suburbs, rents should start to pick up even more as tenants compete for the best spaces. This recession was particularly deep, and unemployment remains an issue. But clearly, the uptick has begun, and is well under way. Shoppers are back, rents have stabilized and should begin rising in the foreseeable future, and a new healthier balance achieved. That's why this year's RECon should be particularly interesting. ICSC reports that attendance is up over last year, a welcome sign of interest in expansion. I'll be there, ready to report on the deals, the mood and the trends I discover at this all-important meeting. Faith Hope Consolo is the chairman of Prudential Douglas Elliman's Retail Group, New York, N.Y.