Joel Ackerman: Where are we now, where are we headed and where are the opportunities?

During the boom period that ended over seven years ago, great financial minds took some good ideas and pushed them to extremes. Appraisals became optimistic predictions of the future, instead of just trying to attach a value to what was already there. Commercial property values in Long Island still have more room to fall but they're firming. Fundamentals of commercial real estate still suggest major problems ahead. Rents continue to drop, pushing down values. But some values are rising; there is a lot of money on the sidelines. Is the next year going to be different this time? Probably not. Smart buyers remember the history and want to buy. Most lenders are laying low and giving borrowers time. The next few years will probably offer great opportunity for long-term real estate investors and for lenders willing and able to make conservative loans to back those investors. It's reasonable to expect the crowd of frustrated buyers with bags of cash on the sidelines to reduce their expectations. We can also expect sellers, who so far mostly aren't selling, to reduce their expectations, too, and perhaps feel some pressure to act. Joel Ackerman, CPA MST is a director at Fuoco Group.